Monday, March 7, 2011

Market Outlook: Analysts on where markets are headed

Nifty could be headed futher lower: CK Narayan, 
Sharyans Resources

The Nifty is down about 100 points. Do you think last week's trend has come to a standstill?

Absolutely, I think we had this fairly nice upward move post the budget when the surprise packet that there were no sets of negatives in the budget has been quite played out by Friday when we hit about 5600 odd levels on the Nifty. The rather lethal set of combination of the DMK trying to pull out of the ministry as well as oil prices surging upward is doing the market in. It seems like it is going to do the damage further because the markets have opened down with a gap and there really seems to be no efforts to bridge that gap upward. We are not seeing even a kind of token rally during the day, which suggests that sellers are active and buyers are out of the picture. So, I think we should continue further down.

If fresh FIIs start selling, Nifty might see pressure: Deepak Mohoni,

There was a concern regarding the flows that as compared to 2010 the flows will be cut a third to about $10 billion. Supposing the news flow isn't good and the flows also do not come in, what is the worst level that you are looking at for the Nifty?

The flows have not been there for quite a while and we did manage something of a rally in the last one month. So, I think there is some independent demand, and we are not entirely dependent on FII flows to keep the market afloat. If there is no further selling off of FIIs assets in India, then we may be reasonably close to a bottom. But if they start selling, then we have problem. So if it status quo I think we have a reasonable chance of a bottom, if new sell off began then of course there is a problem.

Nifty will move up after breaching 5800: Manish Sonthalia, Motilal Oswal Securities

Does it seem like the near-term concerns in commodity prices being on the rise are now priced in when it comes to the auto basket?

Yes, more or less commodity prices are on the rise and all management seem to be concerned about it, so markets are building in some sort of margin compression going into the next few quarters as far as the commodity prices are concerned, so that is all built into the models in terms of earning projections for FY12.

Define your market range for the next six months.

Depending on a lot of factors, oil being the most important one, markets will have a tendency to move up if it crosses 5800. On the downside, I do not think market should be breaking that 5200, which we saw may be a month and a month-and-a-half back.

Nifty is in short-term uptrend: Sudarshan Sukhani, Technical Trends

A quick take on the markets.

We are going into a lot of corrections. This is a correction of the uptrend that has already begun. We are still where we were when we closed on the post budget day. It is no big deal. 100 points down is something we have to accept. I continue to say we are in a short term uptrend and this is probably a buying opportunity.

Define the strategy for us then.

The strategy is that short-term traders should look to go long. My stop loss on the Nifty is at 5400. A close below 5400 will tell us that the uptrend is now done and over with. Until that happens, every dip is a buying opportunity. If somebody bought on Friday, then the person would be stopped out because the trades went wrong, they just went below 5500. But for newcomers, for traders who got stopped out, you can go long, and keep a stop at about 50 points for an intraday trader and 5400 for the swing trader. 

Source: ET

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