Thursday, October 27, 2011

Muhurat Trading: Analyst voices on markets in Samvat 2068

NEW DELHI: Indian markets have underperformed most of the other emerging markets in the past one year with both the benchmark indices losing over 17% since past Diwali.

Samvat 2067 is one that investors would probably like to forget in a hurry.

According to an ET report, the year that ended on Tuesday left most investors in the red, leading to a loss of nearly Rs 17 lakh crore, the second largest such dip in its trading history.

Most analysts expect the markets have the potential to move 3-4 time higher in the next 5 years. To support the bull-run in the markets going forward, analysts expect government contribution is required.

Akash Prakash of Amansa Capital says, government reforms are required for another bull to continue. He further adds, the markets may see an upside of another 10-15% if the Reserve Bank of India pause its rate hike cycle.

Keeping confidence alive in equity markets Manish Chokani of Enam Securities said, investors should look at buying equities rather than securing themselves by buying gold.

Gold has surged nearly 20% since past diwali but most analysts expect it to correct over 50% going forward.

According to Manish Chowkani, 'Gold resembles a form of mania'. Investors should look at buying equities which could give them compounding returns.

"Investors can expect 24-25% compounded return in the next 5 years," added Manish.

"Preferred asset class for next one year is equities and it is the best time to buy blue-chip stocks at reasonable levels," said Rajat Bose of rajatkbose. Com. "Bear market that started last Diwali is coming to an end," added Rajat.

"Despite uncertainties clouding investor minds, markets are not going down, decision from EU leaders meet will be crucial for global markets going forward, said Atul Suri.

"Expect auto sector, cement and private sector banks to outperform the markets this year," added Atul.

Prospects for a comprehensive deal to resolve the euro zone debt crisis at a summit on Wednesday look dim, with deep disagreement remaining on critical aspects of the potential agreement.

According to Ramesh Damani, Member, BSE said, worst has already been factored in to the markets as off now. There are two exciting themes which could play well for investors in the coming year.

Companies which have sold their businesses such as Andhra Paper, Camlin, EI Hotels may give good returns to investors and the second theme is the media sector. The move from analog to digital will create new winners & losers.

"A lot of the bad news has already been factored into bank prices & from a long term perspective there are opportunities available in consumption stocks and capital goods space," said Hiren Ved, Director & CIO, Alchemy Capital Management.

"It looks like investment cycle has come to a standstill, order books have fallen. But, fall in order books may not have bottomed out entirely. High interest rates will remain for a reasonable period of time but we have to watch out for policy initiatives from government going forward," added Hiren.

"For Next 12 months investors should go with consumption story in which ITC and Godrej Consumer stocks are the safest bets in that sector. Pharmaceuticals space also looks very attractive while rural consumption is a good theme going forward, M&M looks very strong in that sector," added R Venkataraman of IIFL.

"Markets look in good shape for another 3-5 years. Allocating some amount of money in gold or silver is fine but, I am not too much of a fan, its an unproductive asset. Investing in long term equities is a much better asset class," said Hiren. 

Source : ET

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